State tournament preview: Arrowhead vs. Burlington
The state tournament begins on June 13 with the Division 1 quarterfinals and semifinals, followed by the semifinals for Divisions 2 through 4 on June 14. All four state championship games will take place on June 15. We're breaking down every quarterfinal and semifinal matchup. Next up: Arrowhead vs. Burlington in the Division 1 quarterfinals.
The rundown
Arrowhead is 21-4 this season and finished tied atop the Wisconsin Little Ten Conference along with Oconomowoc and Catholic Memorial. The Warhawks are making their second consecutive trip to state. They fell in the state championship game to Burlington last year. Their road to Appleton saw them defeat Milwaukee Bradley Tech in regionals and Milwaukee King and Milwaukee Riverside at sectionals. They were ranked No. 4 in Division 1 in the final WBCA rankings of the season.
Burlington is also 21-4 this year and won the Southern Lake Conference title. The Demons are the defending state champions. They used a late rally to beat Arrowhead in a wild state championship game last June. They advanced to the state tournament with wins over Union Grove, Kenosha Indian Trail and Waterford. They were ranked No. 6 in Division 1 in the last WBCA rankings of the year.
Here’s a breakdown of the matchup based on the following categories: hitting, pitching, and base running. The teams are rated on a 100 point scale, with 100 being the best. There are a possible 45 points in both the hitting and pitching categories, and 10 in the base running category.
Hitting
Arrowhead: 45 points
Burlington: 42 points
The Warhawks have a slight edge at the plate thanks to their dominant offense. They hit .366 as a team, and have four starters batting over .400. Luke Dubnicka has a team-high .484 average and has knocked in 20 runs. Indiana recruit Jeff Holtz has had another all-state caliber season. He’s hitting .474 with 16 extra-base hits and 22 RBIs. Alex Tanke hits .451 for Arrowhead with 15 RBIs, and Winona State recruit Tanner Williams is batting .449 with nine extra-base hits and 22 RBIs. Bryce Toussaint (.375), Collin Thiel (.364) and Blake Cottrell (.306) are the other Warhawk starters to hit above .300.
The Demons hit .334 collectively, led by Aaron Sturdevant’s .438 average. He has 10 extra-base hits and 22 RBIs. Zach Campbell hits .416 with 20 RBIs, and Jacob Lindemann has a .387 average with eight extra-base hits and 30 RBIs. Dale Damon is batting .361 with 15 RBIs, while Derek Koenen hits .328. Trey Krause has a .310 average with 19 RBIs, and Grant Tully is hitting a shade under .300 at .297.
Pitching
Arrowhead: 38 points
Burlington: 35 points
These two squads are roughly the same on the mound. Arrowhead is led by a strong contingent at the top of their rotation. Derek Crawley, who started the state championship game last year, is 9-2 this season with a 2.02 ERA in 52 innings. Davis Zeutzius is 7-1 and has posted a 0.97 ERA across 43.1 innings. Jacob Johnson has a 1.54 ERA in 22.2 innings, and Jack Becker has a 2.06 ERA in 17 innings. There’s really not a weak link on the Arrowhead pitching staff.
Burlington is led by ace Zach Campbell. The senior is 6-1 with a 1.26 ERA in 50 innings. Trey Krause compiled a perfect 7-0 record and 0.64 ERA in 33 innings. Trent Turzenski is 3-1 with a 3.38 ERA in 29 innings. The rest of the pitching staff hasn’t had as much success as the Demons’ top three guys, but it hasn’t really hurt them much this season.
Base running
Arrowhead: 4 points
Burlington: 6 points
There’s not much separating these teams on the base paths, but Burlington has been slightly more aggressive stealing bases. The Demons have 56 steals with a 70 percent success rate. While they do get caught stealing more often than most other teams at the state tournament, they’re still dangerous. Sean Safar led the club with 11 steals, and Grant Tully was close behind with nine. Zach Campbell had eight steals, and Dale Damon swiped seven bags.
Arrowhead stole 42 bases and was caught stealing just 11 percent of the time. They had a balanced attack across the board, with several players swiping at least four bases. Tanner Williams had a team-high eight steals, while Luke Dubnicka had six and Jeff Holtz had five.
The verdict
Arrowhead: 87 out of 100 points
Burlington: 83 out of 100 points
Last year’s state championship game was a thriller, and this rematch has potential to be just as good. There’s really no clear favorite. Just like last year, these are two powerhouse teams squaring off. They both have powerful offenses that can score runs in bunches. This is the opening game of the state
