State Tournament Preview: Green Bay Preble vs. Middleton
The 2016 edition of the spring baseball state tournament begins on June 14. There will be 20 teams competing for a state championship across four divisions. The Division 1 quarterfinals and semifinals take place on Tuesday, followed by the Divisions 2-4 semifinals on Wednesday. All four Divisions will play their championship games on Thursday. Today, we're breaking down some of the Division 1 quarterfinals. First, we're taking a look at Green Bay Preble vs. Middleton.
The rundown
Green Bay Preble is 23-5 this season, and is the co-champion of the Fox River Classic Conference. This is their second appearance at the state tournament. Their only other trip to state was in 2002. On the road to Appleton, they beat Rhinelander, Wausau West and Green Bay East/West.
Middleton is 22-5 this spring, and they finished in third place in the tough Big Eight Conference behind fellow state tournament teams Janesville Craig and Sun Prairie. They are making their thirteenth appearance at the state tournament, and their first since 2014. To reach the state quarterfinals, they beat Holmen, Sauk Prairie and La Crosse Logan.
Here’s a breakdown of the matchup based on the following categories: hitting, pitching, and base running. The teams are rated on a 100 point scale, with 100 being the best. There are a possible 45 points in both the hitting and pitching categories, and 10 in the base running category.
*Note: Hitting stats for Green Bay Preble do not account for their two games at sectionals.
Hitting
Green Bay Preble: 30 points
Middleton: 37 points
Middleton has a very potent offense this year, so they get the advantage in the hitting category. The Cardinals batted .328 as a team, and had seven starters bat over .300. Alec Morrison poses the biggest threat in their lineup. He is hitting .373 with 13 doubles and 20 RBIs this season. Liam Belleveau’s .386 average leads the team. Sophomore catcher Alan Roden hit .367 this year with three triples and a home run. Outfielder Drew Finley Haag had a team-high 32 hits this year, and he has a .344 average at this point in the season. Overall, the Cardinals have a very balanced lineup in which any player can beat you.
The Hornets didn’t hit the ball quite as well as the Cardinals this season, but they’ve certainly got a capable offense. Shortstop Connor Lemmens led the team with a .408 batting average. Ryan Dougherty (.329 average, 20 RBIs) and Jarrett Scheelk (.311 average, eight extra base hits, 14 RBIs) make up the heart of the Preble order. Griffin Summers provides a solid bat at the bottom of the lineup with a .293 batting average. The Hornets only had three starters bat over .300 this year, but they had five bat .290 or above.
Pitching
Green Bay Preble: 40 points
Middleton: 35 points
Preble gets the nod in the pitching department. The Hornets have three starting pitchers that would be aces on most teams in the state. When you’ve got a pitching rotation that goes 1A, 1B, 1C instead of 1, 2, 3, you’re in pretty good hands. Griffin Summers got the start in the sectional semifinals, so Preble may elect to start him against Middleton. He’s 6-3 this year with a 1.32 ERA in 52.2 innings. If they don’t choose Summers, they might go with the man who relieved him in the sectional semis: Jarrett Scheelk. He is 7-1 this season, and he’s posted a 0.74 ERA in 56.2 innings. If neither of those options feels right to the Hornets, they’ve got one more starter they could turn to, and he’s got a ton of momentum heading into Tuesday. Caleb Schoenholz pitched a no-hitter in the sectional finals, and he is 4-1 this year with a 1.87 ERA in 41 innings. Having such a deep pitching staff bodes well for the Hornets.
Middleton’s solid pitching rotation is anchored by Alec Morrison. The senior is 8-3 this year with 66.1 innings under his belt. He has posted a 2.85 ERA this year as the team’s most used pitcher. The Cardinals’ number two starter is Adam Nutting, who is 5-1 this spring in 39.2 innings with a 1.77 ERA. Middleton’s third starter is Drew Finley Haag. He went 5-0 this year with a 1.34 ERA in 31.1 innings. All things considered, the Cardinals have a strong pitching staff.
Base running
Green Bay Preble: 8 points
Middleton: 5 points
Preble has a slight edge on the bases in this game. The Hornets stole 80 bases prior to sectionals this season with an 83% success rate. Griffin Summers led the team with 14 swipes, and Connor Lemmens added 10 steals of his own. Henry Geil is a threat off the bench with his speed. The sophomore stole 13 bases this year.
The Cardinals didn’t have anybody steal double digit bases, but they did spread out the attack pretty evenly. As a team, they stole 48 bases. Brennan Schmitt stole eight bases to lead the team, while Drew Finley Haag and Ivan Monreal both had six apiece. The Cardinals had seven players steal four bases or more this season.
The verdict
Green Bay Preble: 78/100 points
Middleton: 77/100 points
Green Bay Preble has a very slight edge over Middleton on our scale thanks to their top-notch pitching. However, there’s not much separating the Hornets and the Cardinals. Middleton’s offense is more than capable of taking on any team’s ace, and it will be exciting to see how Preble’s pitching fares against them. On paper, this quarterfinal is very evenly matched. This is the first game of the tournament, and it will be played at 8 in the morning. Very few players are used to playing that early, so that could have an impact on this game. The team to win the 8 a.m. game has gone on to reach the state championship game in each of the last four years. Both of these teams are good enough to push that number to five.
