State Tournament Preview: Unity vs. St. Mary Catholic
The 2016 edition of the spring baseball state tournament begins on June 14. There will be 20 teams competing for a state championship across four divisions. The Division 1 quarterfinals and semifinals take place on Tuesday, followed by the Divisions 2-4 semifinals on Wednesday. All four Divisions will play their championship games on Thursday. Today, we're breaking down the Division 3 semifinals. In this edition, we've got Unity vs. St. Mary Catholic.
The rundown
Unity, the champion of the Lakeland West Conference, has a 22-4 record this season. This is the first appearance at the state tournament in the Eagles’ history. To get this far, they beat Cumberland and Clayton/Turtle Lake in their regional before claiming their sectional with wins over Chequamegon and Durand.
St. Mary Catholic is one of two undefeated teams in the state, along with fellow state tournament team Markesan. The Zephyrs are 24-0 this year, and they won the Eastern Wisconsin Conference title with ease. They are making their fifth overall appearance at the state tournament, and their first since 2012.
Here’s a breakdown of the matchup based on the following categories: hitting, pitching, and base running. The teams are rated on a 100 point scale, with 100 being the best. There are a possible 45 points in both the hitting and pitching categories, and 10 in the base running category.
Hitting
Unity: 30 points
St. Mary Catholic: 40 points
The Zephyrs have a definite edge at the plate in this matchup. They hit .368 as a team this season, and they have three starters batting over .400. Mike Seveska has a team-high .500 average and he’s among the team leaders in extra base hits, RBIs, and walks. Leadoff man Tyler Nelson gets on base at a very high rate for the Zephyrs. He is hitting .486 this spring and he leads the team in walks with 25. He has only struck out three times this season. Eli Neuman hits .412 for the Zephyrs, while Trevor Hogenson is a force in the middle of the lineup with a .368 average with 34 RBIs and four home runs. There’s not too much to complain about if you’re a St. Mary Catholic fan.
The Eagles can certainly hold their own on the offensive side of things. They collectively hit .288, and they have shown that they can score enough runs to win games. Hunter Pederson leads the team with a .375 batting average and 11 extra base hits. Austin Donahue has the next best average on the team at .320, and his 20 RBIs are the most by an Eagle this spring. Nate Heimstead (.311) is the only other starter to bat over .300 for Unity. However, Logan Bader (.296), Brett Nelson (.286), Phillip Sorenson (.273), Wyatt Stenberg (.269) and Cody Ince (.254) all have respectable averages this season. The Eagles hit for a decent amount of power. They have 41 doubles and three home runs this year.
Pitching
Unity: 38 points
St. Mary Catholic: 42 points
The Zephyrs get a very small advantage on the mound. Both of these teams have top-tier pitching, but St. Mary Catholic’s top three pitchers put up slightly better numbers than Unity’s this year. The Zephyrs’ ace is Mack Blashka. He’s a perfect 8-0 this year in 54 innings. He has posted an incredible 0.65 ERA this season, and he figures to get the start against Unity. He averages almost two strikeouts per inning. The other pitchers that Zephyrs have relied on this year are Caleb Davidson and Ryan Conn. Davidson is 9-0 in 10 appearances (eight starts) and has a 1.04 ERA, while Conn is 5-0 in seven appearances (five starts) with a 1.25 ERA. As a team, the Zephyrs have a 0.86 ERA.
The Eagles also excel on the mound. In addition to being the team’s top hitter, Hunter Pederson has been Unity’s best pitcher this year, at least statistically speaking. He is 8-1 in 65 innings this year with a 1.18 ERA. He averages just a shade under one strikeout per inning. Nate Heimstead has started two more games than Pederson. He’s also 8-1, and he has posted a 1.57 ERA in 58 innings. One of those two guys will likely get the start in this game. Logan Bader offers a solid number three option for the Eagles. He’s 3-1 this year with a 1.21 ERA.
Base running
Unity: 7 points
St. Mary Catholic: 8 points
It’s hard to separate these teams on the base paths. The Zephyrs stole 25 more bases than the Eagles, so they get the advantage in these ratings. Two players did most of the damage for St. Mary Catholic. Tyler Nelson stole 32 bases, which makes him one of the state’s top baserunners. Christian Jack added 21 steals, and their combined 53 swipes are over half of the team’s total of 96. Nobody else stole more than six.
The Eagles stole 71 bases as a team. Phillip Sorensen led the squad with 16, and Brett Nelson had eight. They have a more balanced attack on the bases compared to the Zephyrs’ top runners doing the heavy lifting. However, they didn’t run as much as the Zephyrs.
The verdict
Unity: 75/100 points
St. Mary Catholic: 90/100 points
As one of two undefeated teams in the state, St. Mary Catholic will enter this game as the favorite. Unity garnered a good 75 points in these ratings, and if they were facing a different team the numbers likely wouldn’t be so far apart. The Zephyrs are dominant in all facets of the game, and they are rightfully the highest-ranked team remaining in the Division 3 field. Look for the bottom of the Unity lineup to be the key in this game. If the guys that are batting between .220 and .290 can produce, the Eagles will have a chance. If they struggle to score runs, the burden will fall on the Eagles’ pitchers, who face the difficult task of silencing a prolific Zephyrs offense. They have the ability to do it, but it won’t be easy.
